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Canada

Thunder Bay—Rainy River


MP: Marcus Powlowski (LPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Rainy River


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 49% ± 9% 35.3% 34.3% 48.5% CPC 42% ± 9% 29.3% 29.3% 42.9% NDP 8% ± 4% 29.1% 28.5% 6.8% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.8% 6.6% 1.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 4.5% 1.4% 0.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Thunder Bay—Rainy River


Thunder Bay—Rainy River 49% ± 9% LPC 42% ± 9% CPC 8% ± 4%▲ NDP LPC 2025 48.5% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Rainy River 84%▼ LPC 16%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC 49% ± 9% CPC 42% ± 9% NDP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Rainy River 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 43% NDP 28% LPC 21% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 22% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 42% NDP 27% LPC 23% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 40% LPC 26% NDP 25% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 39% LPC 29% NDP 24% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 38% LPC 33% NDP 21% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 37% LPC 35% NDP 19% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 37% LPC 36% NDP 18% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 38% LPC 36% NDP 18% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 37% CPC 37% NDP 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 40% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 41% CPC 35% NDP 16% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 16% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 44% CPC 36% NDP 13% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 45% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 46% CPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 46% CPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 46% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 46% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 11% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 47% CPC 36% NDP 13% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 49% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 49% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 49% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 49% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Rainy River

LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 94% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader